Smoky skies are expected to return to Minnesota this summer, when climate change-fueled Canadian wildfires are likely to rekindle, according to state experts.
Minnesotans can expect between 12 and 16 days of air quality alerts this summer due to smoke from northern wildfires, according to the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.
“It’s really being driven by climate change and wildfires in Canada, and wildfires here locally in Minnesota, and all that can be attributed back to climate change,” state meteorologist Matt Taraldsen said.
State environment and public health officials hosted a briefing Wednesday on this summer’s air quality forecast.
Wildfire smoke, largely descending into Minnesota from Canada, has been a regular feature of Twin Cities summers since 2018. Those waves of smoke often trigger air quality alerts, which are issued when the Environmental Protection Agency’s color-coded warning system rises to orange levels of pollution.
The Twin Cities set a record for air quality alerts in 2023, when regulators issued warnings on 27 days. Last summer, large fires in Canada and in northeast Minnesota generated 25 air quality alert days in the metro.
This year is bringing a strong El Niño weather pattern, Taraldsen said. El Niño conditions push Pacific Ocean warm water toward North and South America, creating warmer and dryer conditions in the northern United States and Canada, which can lead to drought conditions.
Health risks from smoke
Wildfire smoke carries microscopic drops of smoggy dust that contribute to a host of health problems when inhaled, according to Jessie Carr an epidemiologist with the Minnesota Department of Health.
“It penetrates deep, deep into the lungs and it can pass into the blood stream,” Carr said.
Smoky air can spark short term symptoms like coughing, shortness of breath and eye irritation. Exposure to unhealthy air exacerbates heart disease and asthma, and can lead to premature death. Smoke can also contribute to unhealthy levels of ozone pollution.
Children, including teenagers, the elderly, pregnant women and people who work outdoors are the most at risk from unhealthy air, Carr said.
Black and Native American children are more likely to have asthma than their white, Latino and Asian peers, according to data from the Minnesota Department of Health. Black and Native American Minnesotans visit emergency rooms and are hospitalized due to asthma at much higher rates than white residents.
Micah Niermann, a pediatric physician at Gillette Children’s, said air quality is a critical health concern. Tiny pollution particles from wildfire smoke cause inflammation in the lungs, and when it accumulates, fluid can build up, leading to further issues such as pneumonia. The particles can also carry toxic heavy metals, he said.
“The smoke is putting a lot of people at risk,” Niermann said.
RELATED STORIES
Like all pollution, wildfire smoke impacts are cumulative. Being exposed multiple times over several days is damaging. And people who live near highways and industrial areas with elevated baseline pollution levels have increased risk.
“We know that not every population in Minnesota is exposed to the same level of air pollution,” Taraldsen said.
How to protect your family
The Air Quality Index (AQI) is a system developed by the EPA to provide daily air quality measurements. The scale ranges from good, denoted with the color green, to hazardous, which is shown with a maroon color. Alerts are issued starting at the orange level.
Minnesotans should check air quality like they check weather before leaving home or making plans, Carr said. Many smartphone weather apps have an option to show air quality.
Information about air quality can be found at:
- Current Air Quality conditions on the MPCA website
- Interactive map from the EPA
- AirNow Mobile App
- Minnesotans can call the MPCA AQI hotline at 651-757-2766 (English only)
“Hearing about the number of days with heavy smoke is really daunting,” Carr said.
But limiting outdoor time or wearing a protective N95 level mask during bad air days can make a big difference.
The air in homes is also impacted by conditions outside, Taraldsen said. He recommends running a HEPA-grade air purifier inside during bad air quality days. A cheap alternative can be made by taping a furnace filter to the back of a box fan, he said.
Minnesotans can chip in during bad air quality days by driving less and avoiding activities like bonfires.
How climate change fuels fires
Climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels is the primary driver of the increase in northern wildfires in recent years, experts say.
The changing climate fuels periods of extremes, punctuated by weather with heavy “have” and “have not” spells, Taraldsen said. There are more weeks of intense rainfall and weeks of intense heat and drought.
“That puts a lot of stress on vegetation,” he said.
In 2023, a record year for air quality alerts in the Twin Cities, temperatures in the Canadian boreal forests hit 90 degrees in April, which set the state for an extreme fire season.
